Last Mile Delivery Autonomous Ground Vehicles Market Outlook (2021-2031)

The last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) market size is expected to reach US$ 6,362.83 million by 2031 from US$ 1,251.96 million in 2024. The market is estimated to record a CAGR of 26.9% from 2025 to 2031.  

Executive Summary and Global Market Analysis:

The global market for autonomous ground vehicles specializing in last-mile delivery is undergoing significant transformation, driven by evolving consumer expectations and the rapid expansion of e-commerce. Businesses are increasingly turning to autonomous solutions to address the challenges of urban logistics, including congestion, labor shortages, and the need for efficient, reliable, and contactless delivery services. Technological innovations in artificial intelligence, robotics, and sensor systems are making these vehicles more capable and versatile, enabling them to operate safely in complex urban environments. While the market presents substantial opportunities for operational improvement and customer satisfaction, it also faces regulatory, safety, and investment challenges that must be navigated for widespread adoption.

Technological advancements are enabling vehicles to handle more complex delivery scenarios, with improved navigation, obstacle detection, and energy efficiency. The integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning is further enhancing route optimization and fleet management, making autonomous delivery systems more reliable and adaptable.

Last Mile Delivery Autonomous Ground Vehicles Market Strategic Insights

Last Mile Delivery Autonomous Ground Vehicles Market Segmentation Analysis

Key segments that contributed to the derivation of the Last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) market analysis are drive type, propulsion, sales channel, and geography.

• By vehicle type, the last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicles market is segmented into Ground Delivery Bots Self-Driving Vans and Trucks. Ground delivery bots led the market in 2024
• By end-user, the last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) market is segmented into Retail, Food and Beverage, Healthcare and Pharmaceutical, Logistics, Others. The retail segmented remained the dominant in 2024
• By range, the last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) market is segmented into Short Range (<20 km), Long Range (>20 km). the short range dominated the market in 2024.  
• By geography, the last-mile delivery autonomous ground vehicle (AGVs) market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and South & Central America. North America region dominated the market in 2024.

Last Mile Delivery Autonomous Ground Vehicles Market Drivers and Opportunities:

Technological Advancements in AI and Robotics

Continuous improvements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, sensor technology, and robotics are making autonomous delivery vehicles more reliable, safe, and adaptable. AI-powered navigation systems enable vehicles to detect obstacles, optimize routes, and make real-time decisions, even in complex urban settings. The integration of advanced sensors and edge computing further enhances the operational capabilities of these vehicles, allowing them to operate autonomously with minimal human intervention. As the cost of essential technologies such as LiDAR and AI hardware continues to decline, the return on investment for deploying autonomous delivery solutions becomes increasingly attractive for businesses across various sectors.

Integration with Smart City Initiatives

The ongoing development of smart cities presents a significant opportunity for the expansion of autonomous last-mile delivery services. Smart city initiatives focus on leveraging digital technologies to improve urban mobility, reduce congestion, and enhance sustainability. Autonomous delivery vehicles can be seamlessly integrated into these ecosystems, benefiting from advanced infrastructure, real-time traffic management, and centralized data platforms. By aligning with smart city projects, companies can access new markets, streamline regulatory approval processes, and collaborate with municipal authorities to create a supportive environment for autonomous logistics. This integration also enables the collection and analysis of valuable data, which can be used to further optimize delivery operations and improve service quality.

Last Mile Delivery Autonomous Ground Vehicles Market Size and Share Analysis

By vehicle type, autonomous ground bots led the market in 2024 – Ground delivery bots, also known as sidewalk robots or autonomous ground vehicles, led the autonomous last-mile delivery market by vehicle type, capturing the largest market share in recent years. This dominance is attributed to several key factors such as advancement in technology and operational efficiency. Significant improvements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and sensor systems have enabled these bots to navigate urban and suburban environments safely and efficiently, overcoming obstacles and dynamically recalculating routes as needed. Ground delivery bots are designed to operate on sidewalks and pedestrian pathways, allowing them to bypass congested roads and deliver goods directly to customers’ doorsteps with minimal disruption.

By end-user, The segment retail dominates the last-mile AGV delivery market by payload capacity. This dominance is primarily due to the explosive expansion of online shopping has created an unprecedented demand for fast, reliable delivery of goods directly to consumers’ doorsteps. Retail, especially e-commerce, involves a large number of individual deliveries each day, making it the most significant driver of last-mile logistics. Consumers expect quick, convenient, and often same-day or next-day delivery for their purchases, pushing retailers to adopt innovative solutions like autonomous ground vehicles.

By range, the short-range segment dominated the autonomous last-mile delivery market by range. This is because the vast majority of last-mile deliveries take place within urban and suburban environments, covering relatively short distances between local distribution hubs and customer locations—typically less than 20 kilometres. Autonomous ground robots and drones are particularly well-suited for these short-range operations, as they can efficiently manage quick, localized deliveries of food, medical supplies, and e-commerce orders in densely populated areas.

By region, North America dominated the autonomous last-mile delivery market. North America, particularly the United States, boasts a well-developed logistics infrastructure and a highly mature e-commerce sector. Major players such as Amazon, UPS, FedEx, and Walmart are headquartered here and are aggressively investing in autonomous delivery technologies to meet the growing demand for fast, reliable, and contactless deliveries.